The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 17 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 15 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
Keeper of the Light
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
Juggernautoften banned
Focus · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
Into The Breach
Marssignature
ATF · 12 games
Snapfiresignature
Xibbe · 12 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ATF · 11 games
Linaoften banned
Era · 11 games
Phoenixsignature
Era · 11 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Xibbe · 10 games
Witch Doctor
Xibbe · 9 games
Invokersignature
Supream^ · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
479 picks · 192 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 209 bans
Mars
364 picks · 594 bans
Puck
359 picks · 873 bans
Grimstroke
333 picks · 309 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 451 bans
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 409 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:5
Brame 42%Into The Breach 58%
The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 26:17.
Game 2prediction missed27:41
Brame 42%Into The Breach 58%
The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Brame in 52:46.
Game 3prediction correct38:22
Brame 42%Into The Breach 58%
The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 45:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 58%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3