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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Into The Breachwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
41%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 17 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 15 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
W1sh- · 14 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
SsaSpartan · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 12 games
33%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Focus · 11 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
70%

Into The Breach

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 12 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Xibbe · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ATF · 11 games
64%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Era · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Era · 11 games
73%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Xibbe · 10 games
70%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Xibbe · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Supream^ · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
479 picks · 192 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
379 picks · 209 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 594 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 873 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
333 picks · 309 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
319 picks · 451 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 409 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Into The Breach
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:5
Brame 42%Into The Breach 58%
The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 26:17.
Game 2prediction missed27:41
Brame 42%Into The Breach 58%
The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Brame in 52:46.
Game 3prediction correct38:22
Brame 42%Into The Breach 58%
The model gave 58% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 45:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 58%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3