EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs predictionDDYNASTYwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circleloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DYNASTY
Undyingoften banned
asdekor_r · 3 games
Dark Willow
mrls · 2 games
Iooften banned
bottega · 2 games
Linaoften banned
Mirele · 2 games
Mirana
mrls · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
mrls · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
мистер мораль · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
мистер мораль · 1 game
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 19 games
Kezoften banned
423 · 12 games
Tusk
Fernans · 12 games
Banesignature
Se · 10 games
Rubick
Fernans · 9 games
Winter Wyvern
Se · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
479 picks · 330 bans
Bane
341 picks · 456 bans
Clockwerk
330 picks · 503 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 499 bans
Shadow Fiend
309 picks · 637 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 310 bans
Windranger
266 picks · 191 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 145 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength51% DYNASTY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:10
DYNASTY 46%Inner Circle 54%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by DYNASTY in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendbottega
Phantom Lancerrubikon155
Timbersawмистер мораль
Earth Spiritdualrazee
SlardarMirele
Night StalkerNorma
Keeper of the Lightmrls
EnchantressKidaro
Baneasdekor_r
Dark WillowFernans
Game 2prediction correct31:38
DYNASTY 48%Inner Circle 52%
The model gave 52% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 59:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerbottega
Linadualrazee
Underlordмистер мораль
Kezrubikon155
Earth SpiritMirele
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Miranaasdekor_r
Shadow DemonKidaro
Spirit Breakermrls
HoodwinkFernans
Game 3prediction missed0:0
DYNASTY 46%Inner Circle 54%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by DYNASTY in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezbottega
Dark SeerNorma
Keeper of the LightMirele
Lifestealerrubikon155
Underlordмистер мораль
Earth Spiritdualrazee
Miranaasdekor_r
Dark WillowFernans
Banemrls
Winter WyvernKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 56%
Series resultDYNASTY 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3