FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 30 games
Jakiro
Malady · 25 games
Puckoften banned
Quinn · 25 games
Muerta
tOfu · 24 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Quinn · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Quinn · 22 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 19 games
AVULUS
Tiny
Mo13ei · 33 games
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 24 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 19 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 18 games
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
Tuskoften banned
dEsire · 16 games
Warlock
Fly · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
536 picks · 568 bans
Dark Willow
385 picks · 227 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 422 bans
Pangolier
332 picks · 484 bans
Puck
329 picks · 865 bans
Tiny
323 picks · 320 bans
Batrider
318 picks · 886 bans
Terrorblade
302 picks · 671 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total74% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
Gaimin Gladiators 67%AVULUS 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinWatson
DoomSmiling Knight
PuckQuinn
BeastmasterXibbe
TidehunterAce
Void SpiritWorick
Naga SirentOfu
Dark WillowdEsire
Batrideraik
DisruptorFly
Game 2prediction correct20:16
Gaimin Gladiators 66%AVULUS 34%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautWatson
AbaddonSmiling Knight
BristlebackAce
Shadow FiendWorick
Monkey KingQuinn
PangolierXibbe
EarthshakertOfu
TinydEsire
Lichaik
RingmasterFly
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 74%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2