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FISSURE Universe: Episode 6 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 30 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 25 games
52%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Quinn · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 24 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Quinn · 22 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Quinn · 22 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 21 game
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 19 games
68%

AVULUS

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 33 games
39%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 30 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
dEsire · 24 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Smiling Knight · 19 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Smiling Knight · 18 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 17 games
35%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
dEsire · 16 games
44%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
536 picks · 568 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
385 picks · 227 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
369 picks · 422 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 484 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
329 picks · 865 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
323 picks · 320 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 886 bans
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
302 picks · 671 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total74% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:16
Gaimin Gladiators 67%AVULUS 33%
The model gave 67% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinWatson
55% · 166 games49% · 236 games
DoomSmiling Knight
Doom
Puck
PuckQuinn
50% · 350 games52% · 325 games
BeastmasterXibbe
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
54% · 126 games46% · 163 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirentOfu
58% · 137 games40% · 340 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Batrider
Batrideraik
51% · 411 games47% · 126 games
DisruptorFly
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct20:16
Gaimin Gladiators 66%AVULUS 34%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautWatson
43% · 3 games47% · 123 games
AbaddonSmiling Knight
Abaddon
Bristleback
BristlebackAce
54% · 388 games46% · 107 games
Shadow FiendWorick
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KingQuinn
56% · 301 game41% · 321 game
PangolierXibbe
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakertOfu
53% · 194 games49% · 334 games
TinydEsire
Tiny
Lich
Lichaik
53% · 135 games49% · 136 games
RingmasterFly
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 74%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2