DreamLeague Season 20 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 51 game
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 30 games
Doomsignature
Ace · 28 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Ace · 28 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 26 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 26 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Tiny
gpK~ · 22 games
Enchantressoften banned
Save- · 21 game
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 20 games
Pugnasignature
Save- · 20 games
Rubick
Save- · 19 games
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 15 games
Undyingsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
Nightfall · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 590 bans
Disruptor
609 picks · 528 bans
Doom
553 picks · 1097 bans
Beastmaster
551 picks · 1304 bans
Techies
490 picks · 552 bans
Pangolier
469 picks · 951 bans
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1125 bans
Enchantress
451 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total81% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:50
Gaimin Gladiators 66%BETBOOM TEAM 34%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 50:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingdyrachyo
Ember SpiritgpK~
BroodmotherAce
Monkey KingNightfall
Void SpiritQuinn
DoomPure~
HoodwinktOfu
TechiesSave-
UndyingSeleri
DisruptorTORONTOTOKYO
Game 2prediction correct20:6
Gaimin Gladiators 71%BETBOOM TEAM 29%
The model gave 71% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 22:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladedyrachyo
MorphlingNightfall
UnderlordAce
KunkkagpK~
Queen of PainQuinn
BeastmasterPure~
ChenSeleri
PugnaSave-
TechiestOfu
LichTORONTOTOKYO
Game 3prediction missed12:40
Gaimin Gladiators 69%BETBOOM TEAM 31%
The model gave 69% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 35:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterAce
MedusaNightfall
Lifestealerdyrachyo
Ember SpiritgpK~
HuskarQuinn
TidehunterPure~
TechiestOfu
EnchantressSave-
LichSeleri
Shadow DemonTORONTOTOKYO
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 81%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3