Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 57 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 43 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 37 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 37 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 35 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 35 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 31 game
LGD Gaming
Beastmastersignature
niu · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 27 games
Primal Beastsignature
NothingToSay · 21 game
Disruptor
pLAnet · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
NothingToSay · 20 games
Techiessignature
pLAnet · 20 games
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 19 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
pLAnet · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
640 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
504 picks · 332 bans
Doom
453 picks · 978 bans
Batrider
407 picks · 932 bans
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 861 bans
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
383 picks · 1013 bans
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total61% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:6
Gaimin Gladiators 61%LGD Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmotherdyrachyo
Ursashiro
PangolierQuinn
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
UnderlordAce
PhoenixpLAnet
MiranatOfu
Spirit Breakerniu
DisruptorSeleri
Jakiroy`
Game 2prediction missed28:28
Gaimin Gladiators 57%LGD Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 47:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherAce
Lunashiro
PangolierQuinn
Primal BeastNothingToSay
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
Timbersawniu
RubickSeleri
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
LiontOfu
Baney`
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2