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Gamers Without Borders 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:2
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
74%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 19 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
71%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 11 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
20%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
43%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 274 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
432 picks · 583 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 465 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
348 picks · 750 bans
54%
Sand King
Sand King
340 picks · 463 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 483 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 430 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 436 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 39%
Hero pool strength61% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:33
Gaimin Gladiators 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
40% · 103 games51% · 142 games
MedusaMiracle-
Medusa
Leshrac
LeshracBOOM
47% · 123 games53% · 150 games
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
Sand King
Night Stalker
Night StalkerAce
52% · 71 game51% · 116 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Pugna
PugnatOfu
52% · 91 game52% · 63 games
TuskrmN-
Tusk
Io
IoSeleri
46% · 167 games58% · 84 games
Treant ProtectorKuroKy
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct38:11
Gaimin Gladiators 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAce
52% · 104 games48% · 213 games
MedusaMiracle-
Medusa
Razor
Razordyrachyo
50% · 165 games62% · 53 games
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
Slardar
Tiny
TinyBOOM
44% · 344 games48% · 242 games
Sand KingrmN-
Sand King
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
41% · 188 games53% · 135 games
Shadow DemonGH
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnatOfu
47% · 106 games58% · 264 games
BaneKuroKy
Bane
Game 3prediction missed18:49
Gaimin Gladiators 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinydyrachyo
52% · 258 games50% · 34 games
ClinkzMiracle-
Clinkz
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBOOM
44% · 152 games51% · 81 game
Dark SeerrmN-
Dark Seer
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAce
42% · 57 games52% · 235 games
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
Sand King
Io
IoSeleri
48% · 189 games48% · 74 games
Shadow ShamanGH
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemontOfu
53% · 138 games55% · 370 games
BaneKuroKy
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 82%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3