Gamers Without Borders 2022 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Banesignature
tOfu · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 19 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 15 games
Marssignature
Ace · 15 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
Nigma Galaxy
Banesignature
KuroKy · 11 games
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
Tusk
GH · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
453 picks · 274 bans
Mars
432 picks · 583 bans
Tiny
397 picks · 465 bans
Death Prophet
348 picks · 750 bans
Sand King
340 picks · 463 bans
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 483 bans
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 430 bans
Pangolier
291 picks · 436 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 39%
Hero pool strength61% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total82% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:33
Gaimin Gladiators 71%Nigma Galaxy 29%
The model gave 71% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopterdyrachyo
MedusaMiracle-
LeshracBOOM
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
Night StalkerAce
Keeper of the LightGH
PugnatOfu
TuskrmN-
IoSeleri
Treant ProtectorKuroKy
Game 2prediction correct38:11
Gaimin Gladiators 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageAce
MedusaMiracle-
Razordyrachyo
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
TinyBOOM
Sand KingrmN-
EnchantressSeleri
Shadow DemonGH
PugnatOfu
BaneKuroKy
Game 3prediction missed18:49
Gaimin Gladiators 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinydyrachyo
ClinkzMiracle-
Void SpiritBOOM
Dark SeerrmN-
Legion CommanderAce
Sand KingMinD_ContRoL
IoSeleri
Shadow ShamanGH
Shadow DemontOfu
BaneKuroKy
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 82%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3