DreamLeague Season 23 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 29 games
Batridersignature
tOfu · 21 game
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 18 games
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 17 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 17 games
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
Team Falcons
Marssignature
ATF · 48 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 47 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 44 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 44 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 39 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 36 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 35 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 32 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
Tiny
425 picks · 639 bans
Batrider
420 picks · 723 bans
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 363 bans
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 580 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
370 picks · 790 bans
Shadow Demon
340 picks · 954 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 66%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total77% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:7
Gaimin Gladiators 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 20:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkzdyrachyo
Void SpiritATF
Centaur WarrunnerAce
TimbersawMalr1ne
Storm SpiritQuinn
RazorSkiter
Dark WillowtOfu
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Ancient ApparitionSeleri
IoSneyking
Game 2prediction missed29:14
Gaimin Gladiators 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritQuinn
Naga SirenSkiter
Clinkzdyrachyo
LinaMalr1ne
Dark SeerAce
MarsATF
Dark WillowtOfu
WeaverCr1t-
ClockwerkSeleri
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 77%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2