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DreamLeague Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 29 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 21 game
81%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 18 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
dyrachyo · 17 games
59%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 17 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 17 games
76%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 48 games
79%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 47 games
68%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 44 games
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 44 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 39 games
74%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 36 games
81%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 35 games
63%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 32 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 223 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 639 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
420 picks · 723 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
404 picks · 363 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
403 picks · 580 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 162 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
370 picks · 790 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
340 picks · 954 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 66%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total77% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:7
Gaimin Gladiators 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 20:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
47% · 38 games55% · 97 games
Void SpiritATF
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
52% · 166 games46% · 177 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQuinn
55% · 160 games52% · 102 games
RazorSkiter
Razor
Dark Willow
Dark WillowtOfu
47% · 74 games43% · 26 games
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSeleri
53% · 26 games45% · 62 games
IoSneyking
Io
Game 2prediction missed29:14
Gaimin Gladiators 32%Team Falcons 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 32:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQuinn
44% · 108 games56% · 103 games
Naga SirenSkiter
Naga Siren
Clinkz
Clinkzdyrachyo
56% · 30 games46% · 45 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
46% · 95 games53% · 119 games
MarsATF
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowtOfu
49% · 125 games51% · 82 games
WeaverCr1t-
Weaver
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSeleri
46% · 107 games56% · 116 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 77%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2