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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO5
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 3:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Team Liquidloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 26 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
77%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 21 game
81%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 19 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
tOfu · 18 games
61%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
76%

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
52%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 30 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
66%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
52%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 28 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 24 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 22 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 738 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
344 picks · 298 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
340 picks · 227 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
337 picks · 669 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
317 picks · 470 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
310 picks · 379 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
306 picks · 532 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
286 picks · 344 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total65% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:4
Gaimin Gladiators 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 24:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherdyrachyo
50% · 52 games59% · 53 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
45% · 152 games49% · 190 games
PangolierNisha
Pangolier
Invoker
InvokerQuinn
43% · 116 games49% · 61 game
Tidehunter33
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenSeleri
62% · 114 games49% · 93 games
MorphlingBoxi
Morphling
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
52% · 55 games46% · 92 games
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Gaimin Gladiators 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistdyrachyo
41% · 71 game50% · 28 games
Sand KingNisha
Sand King
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendQuinn
46% · 34 games61% · 46 games
Monkey KingmiCKe
Monkey King
Broodmother
BroodmotherAce
44% · 46 games51% · 79 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Chen
ChenSeleri
57% · 46 games47% · 64 games
TechiesBoxi
Techies
Invoker
InvokertOfu
46% · 74 games58% · 54 games
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct26:11
Gaimin Gladiators 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingQuinn
59% · 49 games46% · 66 games
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Shadow Fiend
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
51% · 138 games51% · 194 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
56% · 218 games40% · 109 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaSeleri
59% · 127 games42% · 247 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
Weaver
WeavertOfu
48% · 255 games51% · 171 game
ClockwerkBoxi
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 65%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3