Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO5
result vs predictionseries probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 26 games
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 21 game
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
Rubick
tOfu · 19 games
Hoodwinksignature
tOfu · 18 games
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
Team Liquid
Rubick
Boxi · 31 game
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 30 games
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 28 games
Tinysignature
Boxi · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 22 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
388 picks · 738 bans
Hoodwink
344 picks · 298 bans
Rubick
340 picks · 227 bans
Weaver
337 picks · 669 bans
Clockwerk
317 picks · 470 bans
Gyrocopter
310 picks · 379 bans
Pangolier
306 picks · 532 bans
Dark Willow
286 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total65% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:4
Gaimin Gladiators 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 24:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmotherdyrachyo
Monkey KingmiCKe
BeastmasterAce
PangolierNisha
InvokerQuinn
Tidehunter33
ChenSeleri
MorphlingBoxi
JakirotOfu
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Gaimin Gladiators 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 46:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemistdyrachyo
Sand KingNisha
Shadow FiendQuinn
Monkey KingmiCKe
BroodmotherAce
Brewmaster33
ChenSeleri
TechiesBoxi
InvokertOfu
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
Game 3prediction correct26:11
Gaimin Gladiators 60%Team Liquid 40%
The model gave 60% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand KingQuinn
Shadow FiendmiCKe
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
TinyNisha
Dark SeerAce
Beastmaster33
EnigmaSeleri
RubickiNSaNiA
WeavertOfu
ClockwerkBoxi
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 65%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3