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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 56 games
75%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 43 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 37 games
65%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 36 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 35 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 34 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 31 game
68%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 59 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 28 games
68%
Lich
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 26 games
62%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 25 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
638 picks · 690 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
493 picks · 325 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
450 picks · 980 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
402 picks · 927 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 855 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1009 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total64% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Gaimin Gladiators 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 53:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svendyrachyo
48% · 36 games49% · 106 games
Drow RangerYatoro
Drow Ranger
Razor
RazorQuinn
48% · 28 games40% · 35 games
Ogre MagiCollapse
Ogre Magi
Underlord
UnderlordAce
43% · 27 games52% · 165 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Rubick
RubicktOfu
52% · 274 games56% · 49 games
LionMira
Lion
Io
IoSeleri
51% · 47 games55% · 57 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed24:36
Gaimin Gladiators 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinQuinn
46% · 202 games51% · 167 games
BloodseekerYatoro
Bloodseeker
Lifestealer
Lifestealerdyrachyo
53% · 96 games53% · 145 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAce
55% · 427 games45% · 302 games
SnapfireLarl
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
48% · 343 games54% · 57 games
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Winter Wyvern
Lion
LiontOfu
51% · 79 games49% · 476 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2