Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 56 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 43 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 37 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 35 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 34 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 31 game
Team Spirit
Rubick
Mira · 59 games
Beastmastersignature
Collapse · 28 games
Lichsignature
Miposhka · 28 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Larl · 27 games
Snapfiresignature
Larl · 26 games
Undyingoften banned
Miposhka · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
638 picks · 690 bans
Rubick
493 picks · 325 bans
Doom
450 picks · 980 bans
Batrider
402 picks · 927 bans
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 855 bans
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
380 picks · 1009 bans
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 41%
Hero pool strength56% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total64% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Gaimin Gladiators 59%Team Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 53:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svendyrachyo
Drow RangerYatoro
RazorQuinn
Ogre MagiCollapse
UnderlordAce
LeshracLarl
RubicktOfu
LionMira
IoSeleri
Elder TitanMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed24:36
Gaimin Gladiators 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinQuinn
BloodseekerYatoro
Lifestealerdyrachyo
MarsCollapse
BeastmasterAce
SnapfireLarl
EnchantressSeleri
Winter WyvernMiposhka
LiontOfu
RubickMira
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2