Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gorilla
Kunkkaoften banned
Night · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Molasses · 1 game
Elder Titan
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Night · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Fonte · 1 game
Marcioften banned
小郭嘉 · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Fonte · 1 game
Yangon Galacticos
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ksh · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Young PH · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Ksh · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Faceless Voidoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
486 picks · 452 bans
Mars
484 picks · 676 bans
Bane
459 picks · 281 bans
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 504 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 571 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 652 bans
Pangolier
376 picks · 595 bans
Grimstroke
353 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Yangon Galacticos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Yangon Galacticos
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:22
Gorilla 47%Yangon Galacticos 53%
The model gave 53% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 25:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinFonte
MorphlingKsh
Void SpiritNight
PangolierYoung PH
Death ProphetMolasses
Bane小郭嘉
Game 2prediction missed39:23
Gorilla 47%Yangon Galacticos 53%
The model gave 53% on Yangon Galacticos — the game was taken by Gorilla in 39:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistFonte
JuggernautKsh
PuckNight
Ember SpiritYoung PH
ViperMolasses
Disruptor小郭嘉
Model check result
Model favoriteYangon Galacticos · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2