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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Uniquewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
60%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 14 games
79%

Team Unique

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
400 picks · 1012 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
376 picks · 194 bans
47%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 605 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
367 picks · 367 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
315 picks · 499 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
308 picks · 681 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 226 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
281 picks · 157 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:27
Hellbear Smashers 55%Team Unique 45%
The model gave 55% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Team Unique in 41:21.
Game 2prediction missed26:33
Hellbear Smashers 55%Team Unique 45%
The model gave 55% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Team Unique in 39:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 55%
Series resultTeam Unique 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2