Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 14 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 14 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
400 picks · 1012 bans
Lion
376 picks · 194 bans
Mars
376 picks · 605 bans
Grimstroke
367 picks · 367 bans
Void Spirit
315 picks · 499 bans
Death Prophet
308 picks · 681 bans
Tusk
303 picks · 226 bans
Snapfire
281 picks · 157 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 44%
Hero pool strength59% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:27
Hellbear Smashers 55%Team Unique 45%
The model gave 55% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Team Unique in 41:21.
Game 2prediction missed26:33
Hellbear Smashers 55%Team Unique 45%
The model gave 55% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Team Unique in 39:45.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 55%
Series resultTeam Unique 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2