Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PPPerrito Panzonloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
Hoodwink
Genek · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Lumière · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Costabile · 2 games
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 2 games
Death Prophet
Vitaly · 2 games
Nature's Prophet
Lumière · 2 games
Perrito Panzon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
570 picks · 353 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 572 bans
Rubick
463 picks · 243 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 377 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 541 bans
Puck
332 picks · 881 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 813 bans
Tusk
312 picks · 267 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Perrito Panzon
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:31
Hokori 51%Perrito Panzon 49%
The model gave 51% on Hokori — the game was taken by Perrito Panzon in 45:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerLumière
Shadow FiendDaaD-
Primal BeastVitaly
PuckBenjimon
HoodwinkAsao
TechiesMichael
Treant ProtectorGardick
LargoCHAAANNN
Game 2prediction correct28:18
Hokori 50%Perrito Panzon 50%
The model gave 50% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 35:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendLumière
Queen of PainBenjimon
DoomVitaly
BeastmasterDaaD-
Skywrath MageAsao
HoodwinkMichael
Treant ProtectorGardick
LichCHAAANNN
Game 3prediction correct32:29
Hokori 51%Perrito Panzon 49%
The model gave 51% on Hokori — the game was taken by Hokori in 57:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerLumière
Faceless VoidDaaD-
LargoVitaly
Ember SpiritBenjimon
Nyx AssassinAsao
Keeper of the LightMichael
Treant ProtectorGardick
Witch DoctorCHAAANNN
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 51%
Series resultHokori 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3