Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 31 game
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 28 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 26 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 25 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 20 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 19 games
No Sorry
Tinyoften banned
layme · 16 games
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 15 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 15 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 15 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 11 games
Legion Commanderoften banned
LastHero- · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
434 picks · 275 bans
Mars
423 picks · 568 bans
Tiny
384 picks · 448 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 723 bans
Sand King
323 picks · 442 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 424 bans
Storm Spirit
275 picks · 417 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 52%
Hero pool strength60% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total69% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:30
Hydra 60%No Sorry 40%
The model gave 60% on Hydra — the game was taken by No Sorry in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaAskold
Tinylayme
RazorKami
Storm SpiritWorick
Shadow ShamanZayac
AxeLastHero-
AbaddonMuka
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
49% · 136 games
IoKaori
Game 2prediction missed23:39
Hydra 61%No Sorry 39%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by No Sorry in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinKami
Juggernautlayme
Storm SpiritAskold
Ember SpiritWorick
Shadow ShamanZayac
BeastmasterLastHero-
PugnaMuka
GrimstrokeKaori
56% · 95 games
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 69%
Series resultNo Sorry 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2