Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 9 games
Windrangersignature
sl4d1n- · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Mirana
sl4d1n- · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 3 games
Tiny
sl4d1n- · 3 games
Evil Geniuses
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 11 games
Chen
Wij · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 8 games
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 8 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 7 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuma · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
378 picks · 354 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 334 bans
Rubick
285 picks · 211 bans
Mirana
272 picks · 268 bans
Crystal Maiden
196 picks · 144 bans
Snapfire
187 picks · 107 bans
Pangolier
182 picks · 501 bans
Treant Protector
178 picks · 236 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:50
Infamous 14%Evil Geniuses 86%
The model gave 86% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 44:44.
Game 2prediction correct8:39
Infamous 14%Evil Geniuses 86%
The model gave 86% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 26:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 86%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2