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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 9 games
44%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
sl4d1n- · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 4 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Mirana
Mirana
sl4d1n- · 3 games
67%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 3 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
sl4d1n- · 3 games
0%

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 11 games
45%
Chen
Chen
Wij · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 8 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 7 games
29%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuma · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
378 picks · 354 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 334 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
285 picks · 211 bans
59%
Mirana
Mirana
272 picks · 268 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
196 picks · 144 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
187 picks · 107 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
182 picks · 501 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
178 picks · 236 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:50
Infamous 14%Evil Geniuses 86%
The model gave 86% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 44:44.
Game 2prediction correct8:39
Infamous 14%Evil Geniuses 86%
The model gave 86% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 26:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 86%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2