Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 8 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 6 games
Marssignature
Sacred · 6 games
Tinysignature
Michael · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sacred · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Michael · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Weaveroften banned
Sacred · 5 games
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 13 games
Phoenix
Mjz · 7 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 4 games
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
288 picks · 431 bans
Tidehunter
270 picks · 403 bans
Monkey King
263 picks · 674 bans
Bane
256 picks · 194 bans
Weaver
236 picks · 477 bans
Snapfire
222 picks · 122 bans
Void Spirit
213 picks · 257 bans
Lina
212 picks · 481 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 36%
Hero pool strength67% Infamous
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:41
Infamous 29%Thunder Awaken 71%
The model gave 71% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 33:12.
Game 2prediction correct9:23
Infamous 29%Thunder Awaken 71%
The model gave 71% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 30:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 71%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2