DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Linaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
Techies
Demon · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Demon · 3 games
Ogre Magi
Yadomi · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
Estar Backs
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Yor · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Michael · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
Rubick
Michael · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
412 picks · 664 bans
Mars
390 picks · 626 bans
Lion
387 picks · 359 bans
Techies
386 picks · 315 bans
Batrider
371 picks · 811 bans
Tiny
367 picks · 433 bans
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
Hoodwink
339 picks · 205 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:7
Infinity Esports 44%Estar Backs 56%
The model gave 56% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 24:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinParker
SvenMnz
InvokerPiPi
PangolierDarkMago
BrewmasterOscar
Primal BeastSacred
Ogre MagiYadomi
GrimstrokeMichael
GyrocopterDemon
Crystal MaidenYor
Game 2prediction correct17:40
Infinity Esports 45%Estar Backs 55%
The model gave 55% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerParker
Phantom AssassinMnz
Monkey KingPiPi
DawnbreakerSacred
BrewmasterOscar
TinyDarkMago
GyrocopterDemon
GrimstrokeMichael
Ogre MagiYadomi
Crystal MaidenYor
Game 3prediction correct22:35
Infinity Esports 46%Estar Backs 54%
The model gave 54% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinParker
LifestealerMnz
LeshracPiPi
Dark SeerSacred
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
TinyDarkMago
TechiesDemon
RubickMichael
GrimstrokeYadomi
DisruptorYor
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 61%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3