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DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Estar Backswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Lina
Linaoften banned
Parker · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
100%
Techies
Techies
Demon · 4 games
25%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 3 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Demon · 3 games
100%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Yadomi · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
0%

Estar Backs

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Frank · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Yor · 5 games
80%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mnz · 4 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Michael · 4 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Parker · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
412 picks · 664 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 626 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
387 picks · 359 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
386 picks · 315 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
371 picks · 811 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
367 picks · 433 bans
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
355 picks · 358 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
339 picks · 205 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Estar Backs
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Estar Backs
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:7
Infinity Esports 44%Estar Backs 56%
The model gave 56% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 24:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinParker
49% · 216 games50% · 129 games
SvenMnz
Sven
Invoker
InvokerPiPi
45% · 144 games52% · 207 games
PangolierDarkMago
Pangolier
Brewmaster
BrewmasterOscar
44% · 151 game52% · 132 games
Primal BeastSacred
Primal Beast
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiYadomi
49% · 19 games56% · 137 games
GrimstrokeMichael
Grimstroke
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDemon
51% · 166 games53% · 91 game
Crystal MaidenYor
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct17:40
Infinity Esports 45%Estar Backs 55%
The model gave 55% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 33:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerParker
51% · 113 games50% · 49 games
Phantom AssassinMnz
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingPiPi
52% · 91 game43% · 47 games
DawnbreakerSacred
Dawnbreaker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterOscar
49% · 110 games51% · 155 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterDemon
50% · 131 game53% · 96 games
GrimstrokeMichael
Grimstroke
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiYadomi
51% · 14 games49% · 112 games
Crystal MaidenYor
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction correct22:35
Infinity Esports 46%Estar Backs 54%
The model gave 54% on Estar Backs — the game was taken by Estar Backs in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinParker
50% · 48 games51% · 126 games
LifestealerMnz
Lifestealer
Leshrac
LeshracPiPi
53% · 137 games56% · 95 games
Dark SeerSacred
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
49% · 214 games44% · 205 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Techies
TechiesDemon
50% · 400 games41% · 358 games
RubickMichael
Rubick
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeYadomi
52% · 126 games54% · 141 game
DisruptorYor
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteEstar Backs · 61%
Series resultEstar Backs 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3