Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
KZ TEAMloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
cybercatswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KZ TEAM
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 28 games
Earthshaker
dEsire · 24 games
Primal Beastoften banned
dEsire · 23 games
Rubick
dEsire · 21 game
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 18 games
Tinysignature
dEsire · 18 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 17 games
cybercats
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 10 games
Lycanoften banned
zenica · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
forcemajor · 9 games
Hoodwink
jesv · 8 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
Rubick
jesv · 7 games
Techies
jesv · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
887 picks · 616 bans
Tiny
633 picks · 440 bans
Tusk
536 picks · 433 bans
Nature's Prophet
535 picks · 850 bans
Treant Protector
534 picks · 544 bans
Snapfire
477 picks · 329 bans
Death Prophet
464 picks · 998 bans
Clockwerk
436 picks · 314 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:28
KZ TEAM 46%cybercats 54%
The model gave 54% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 24:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawMr. Luck
MiranaAlberkaaa
SniperG.T.I
Outworld DestroyerChira JUNIOR
58% · 34 games
LycanDkFogas
58% · 37 games
Disruptorjesv
61% · 59 games
Marciforcemajor
Game 2prediction correct13:37
KZ TEAM 47%cybercats 53%
The model gave 53% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 31:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawMr. Luck
NecrophosAlberkaaa
PangolierG.T.I
EnchantressDkFogas
52% · 279 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
49% · 123 games
Dragon Knightforcemajor
46% · 194 games
Rubickjesv
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 59%
Series resultcybercats 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2