BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Hoodwink
sayuw · 47 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 35 games
Phoenix
RESPECT · 26 games
Pucksignature
Mirage · 26 games
Rubick
sayuw · 26 games
Ringmaster
RESPECT · 25 games
Slardaroften banned
Corrupted · 23 games
Underlordoften banned
Corrupted · 22 games
Klim Sani4
Windrangersignature
swedenstrong · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
Rein · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
Lycansignature
mangekyou · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
459 picks · 283 bans
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 462 bans
Mirana
299 picks · 116 bans
Clockwerk
291 picks · 291 bans
Dark Willow
291 picks · 123 bans
Bane
277 picks · 402 bans
Shadow Fiend
274 picks · 578 bans
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 401 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 74%
Hero pool strength62% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Klim Sani4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
HULIGANI 35%Klim Sani4 65%
The model gave 65% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladessnovv1
Nature's Prophet423
PangolierMirage
Doommangekyou
UndyingAlberkaaa
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Rubickswedenstrong
RingmasterRESPECT
LargoRein
Game 2prediction correct9:26
HULIGANI 38%Klim Sani4 62%
The model gave 62% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMirage
Necrophosmangekyou
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lone Druid423
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
Rubickswedenstrong
RingmasterRESPECT
LargoRein
Model check result
Model favoriteKlim Sani4 · 70%
Series resultKlim Sani4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2