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BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Klim Sani4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 47 games
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 35 games
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
RESPECT · 26 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 26 games
81%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 26 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
RESPECT · 25 games
52%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Corrupted · 23 games
39%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Corrupted · 22 games
41%

Klim Sani4

Windranger
Windrangersignature
swedenstrong · 12 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Rein · 10 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 9 games
89%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 8 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
88%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
63%
Lycan
Lycansignature
mangekyou · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
459 picks · 283 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
312 picks · 462 bans
55%
Mirana
Mirana
299 picks · 116 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
291 picks · 291 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
291 picks · 123 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
277 picks · 402 bans
51%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
274 picks · 578 bans
49%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 401 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 74%
Hero pool strength62% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Klim Sani4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:31
HULIGANI 35%Klim Sani4 65%
The model gave 65% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladessnovv1
43% · 166 games52% · 155 games
Nature's Prophet423
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierMirage
46% · 388 games54% · 197 games
Doommangekyou
Doom
Undying
UndyingAlberkaaa
48% · 182 games54% · 370 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
51% · 212 games48% · 282 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
48% · 251 game56% · 195 games
LargoRein
Largo
Game 2prediction correct9:26
HULIGANI 38%Klim Sani4 62%
The model gave 62% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 32:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMirage
53% · 202 games40% · 113 games
Necrophosmangekyou
Necrophos
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
45% · 90 games59% · 69 games
Lone Druid423
Lone Druid
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
51% · 212 games51% · 185 games
Earth SpiritSquad1x
Earth Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsayuw
52% · 173 games51% · 246 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Ringmaster
RingmasterRESPECT
47% · 174 games50% · 238 games
LargoRein
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteKlim Sani4 · 70%
Series resultKlim Sani4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2