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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Most Wantedloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 25 games
48%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 21 game
62%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 18 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
RESPECT · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
44%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 18 games
50%

Most Wanted

Tusk
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 7 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 6 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 6 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 5 games
80%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 5 games
80%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
niche · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
715 picks · 346 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
597 picks · 628 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
499 picks · 255 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
411 picks · 1171 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
410 picks · 254 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
407 picks · 687 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
394 picks · 405 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 397 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:15
HULIGANI 49%Most Wanted 51%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knighterase
45% · 425 games50% · 283 games
Terrorblade423
Terrorblade
Pangolier
PangolierBb3px
46% · 445 games52% · 239 games
Nature's Prophetniche
Nature's Prophet
Sven
Svenv1olent-
44% · 197 games53% · 160 games
TidehunterfortniteMan
Tidehunter
Chen
ChenRESPECT
58% · 217 games50% · 260 games
SnapfireRein
Snapfire
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
54% · 32 games50% · 374 games
TuskPonlo
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed6:22
HULIGANI 50%Most Wanted 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 20:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezv1olent-
53% · 35 games53% · 222 games
Nature's Prophetniche
Nature's Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
49% · 326 games47% · 277 games
Beastmaster423
Beastmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knighterase
45% · 475 games54% · 239 games
BristlebackfortniteMan
Bristleback
Slark
Slarkslimeyao
57% · 148 games45% · 305 games
JakiroRein
Jakiro
Snapfire
SnapfireRESPECT
52% · 375 games48% · 316 games
TuskPonlo
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed31:10
HULIGANI 50%Most Wanted 50%
The model gave 50% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
52% · 256 games53% · 76 games
Huskar423
Huskar
Sniper
Snipererase
48% · 85 games52% · 216 games
Centaur Warrunnerniche
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsBb3px
49% · 237 games49% · 347 games
BeastmasterfortniteMan
Beastmaster
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
47% · 340 games46% · 361 game
TuskPonlo
Tusk
Pugna
Pugnaslimeyao
55% · 202 games52% · 120 games
DazzleRein
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 51%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3