CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Snapfire
RESPECT · 25 games
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 21 game
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 18 games
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
RESPECT · 18 games
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
Warlock
RESPECT · 18 games
Most Wanted
Tusksignature
Ponlo · 7 games
Bristlebacksignature
fortniteMan · 6 games
Disruptorsignature
Ponlo · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 5 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 5 games
Slardaroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 5 games
Void Spirit
niche · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
715 picks · 346 bans
Disruptor
597 picks · 628 bans
Hoodwink
499 picks · 255 bans
Puck
411 picks · 1171 bans
Tusk
410 picks · 254 bans
Mars
407 picks · 687 bans
Dragon Knight
394 picks · 405 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 397 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 71%
Hero pool strength56% Most Wanted
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:15
HULIGANI 49%Most Wanted 51%
The model gave 51% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knighterase
Terrorblade423
PangolierBb3px
Nature's Prophetniche
Svenv1olent-
TidehunterfortniteMan
ChenRESPECT
SnapfireRein
Spirit Breakerslimeyao
TuskPonlo
Game 2prediction missed6:22
HULIGANI 50%Most Wanted 50%
The model gave 50% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Most Wanted in 20:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezv1olent-
Nature's Prophetniche
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Beastmaster423
Dragon Knighterase
BristlebackfortniteMan
Slarkslimeyao
JakiroRein
SnapfireRESPECT
TuskPonlo
Game 3prediction missed31:10
HULIGANI 50%Most Wanted 50%
The model gave 50% on Most Wanted — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonv1olent-
Huskar423
Snipererase
Centaur Warrunnerniche
MarsBb3px
BeastmasterfortniteMan
JakiroRESPECT
TuskPonlo
Pugnaslimeyao
DazzleRein
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 51%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3