Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Lunaoften banned
RAMZES666 · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 6 games
Lion
Immersion · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
Dark Willow
Immersion · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 4 games
Tiny
Immersion · 4 games
Vengeful Spirit
aik · 4 games
Nemiga Gaming
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 8 games
Dazzlesignature
zenica · 6 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 6 games
Magnusoften banned
zenica · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
v1olent- · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 352 bans
Vengeful Spirit
340 picks · 336 bans
Centaur Warrunner
331 picks · 528 bans
Mars
320 picks · 485 bans
Techies
312 picks · 243 bans
Batrider
300 picks · 570 bans
Hoodwink
298 picks · 177 bans
Tiny
284 picks · 256 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength62% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:19
HULIGANI 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 50:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistRAMZES666
Anti-Magev1olent-
Windrangerre1bl
Tinynicky`cool
BeastmasterBb3px
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
UndyingPanto
Rubickqueezy
TechiesOneJey
Pugnaaik
Game 2prediction missed42:24
HULIGANI 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:00:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistRAMZES666
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
DoomBb3px
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
Primal Beastre1bl
TinyMikSa`
EnchantressPanto
Pugnaqueezy
Skywrath MageOneJey
Techiesaik
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 54%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2