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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Luna
Lunaoften banned
RAMZES666 · 7 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Immersion · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Immersion · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
Immersion · 4 games
0%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
aik · 4 games
0%

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 8 games
50%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
zenica · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 6 games
33%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
zenica · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
v1olent- · 6 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 352 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
340 picks · 336 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
331 picks · 528 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
320 picks · 485 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
312 picks · 243 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
300 picks · 570 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
298 picks · 177 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
284 picks · 256 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength62% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:19
HULIGANI 49%Nemiga Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 50:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
55% · 189 games46% · 91 game
Anti-Magev1olent-
Anti-Mage
Windranger
Windrangerre1bl
48% · 176 games49% · 237 games
Tinynicky`cool
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
55% · 319 games45% · 155 games
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
Centaur Warrunner
Undying
UndyingPanto
50% · 275 games45% · 570 games
Rubickqueezy
Rubick
Techies
TechiesOneJey
54% · 384 games53% · 290 games
Pugnaaik
Pugna
Game 2prediction missed42:24
HULIGANI 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 1:00:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistRAMZES666
52% · 171 game51% · 238 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Doom
DoomBb3px
53% · 289 games47% · 66 games
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
Phantom Assassin
Primal Beast
Primal Beastre1bl
52% · 203 games49% · 252 games
TinyMikSa`
Tiny
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
48% · 282 games53% · 230 games
Pugnaqueezy
Pugna
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOneJey
45% · 226 games49% · 385 games
Techiesaik
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 54%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2