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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 4 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 4 games
25%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
4IVAN · 4 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Gunnar · 3 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 3 games
33%

Zero Tenacity

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
30%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
38%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 24 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 24 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
58%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 24 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 24 games
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
553 picks · 627 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 249 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
458 picks · 402 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
411 picks · 461 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
404 picks · 853 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
385 picks · 348 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 567 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:37
Level UP 36%Zero Tenacity 64%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP in 50:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusarubikon155
49% · 151 game55% · 63 games
OmniknightAinkrad
Omniknight
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
46% · 88 games54% · 212 games
TerrorbladeNefrit
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paintoshiyb
44% · 86 games43% · 34 games
Anti-MageNande
Anti-Mage
Enchantress
EnchantressPonlo
47% · 110 games55% · 287 games
Dark WillowPablo
Dark Willow
Batrider
BatriderAtoufix
52% · 230 games46% · 69 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed37:18
Level UP 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerubikon155
48% · 240 games54% · 158 games
LinaNande
Lina
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkrol9ash
48% · 69 games59% · 293 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Tiny
Tinytoshiyb
50% · 343 games43% · 105 games
Queen of PainAinkrad
Queen of Pain
Mirana
MiranaPonlo
52% · 90 games57% · 121 game
Naga SirenSe
Naga Siren
Ringmaster
RingmasterAtoufix
44% · 117 games45% · 182 games
Dark WillowPablo
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2