European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
Earthshaker
xsvampire · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 4 games
Leshrac
Atoufix · 4 games
Magnusoften banned
4IVAN · 4 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Gunnar · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 3 games
Zero Tenacity
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 24 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 24 games
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 24 games
Rubick
Pablo · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
553 picks · 627 bans
Ringmaster
490 picks · 249 bans
Jakiro
458 picks · 402 bans
Shadow Shaman
411 picks · 461 bans
Terrorblade
404 picks · 853 bans
Tusk
385 picks · 348 bans
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 567 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 531 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:37
Level UP 36%Zero Tenacity 64%
The model gave 64% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP in 50:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusarubikon155
OmniknightAinkrad
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
TerrorbladeNefrit
Queen of Paintoshiyb
Anti-MageNande
EnchantressPonlo
Dark WillowPablo
BatriderAtoufix
DisruptorSe
Game 2prediction missed37:18
Level UP 33%Zero Tenacity 67%
The model gave 67% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladerubikon155
LinaNande
Brewmasterkrol9ash
BristlebackNefrit
Tinytoshiyb
Queen of PainAinkrad
MiranaPonlo
Naga SirenSe
RingmasterAtoufix
Dark WillowPablo
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 76%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2