Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 0:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:1
StoRmwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MoneyMakers
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 16 games
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 11 games
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
Batridersignature
Egor · 8 games
StoRm
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
Spirit Breakersignature
OneJey · 10 games
Tiny
RodjER · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 9 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 9 games
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
686 picks · 477 bans
Techies
610 picks · 640 bans
Doom
567 picks · 1110 bans
Disruptor
522 picks · 493 bans
Beastmaster
517 picks · 1233 bans
Ember Spirit
483 picks · 1048 bans
Enchantress
460 picks · 678 bans
Pangolier
451 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:19
MoneyMakers 50%StoRm 50%
The model gave 50% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenLukas
Morphlingkrylat
Templar AssassinEgor
Zeusnicky`cool
Spirit BreakerBb3px
Tidehunteremptiness
RubickCeMaTheSlayeR
LionOneJey
SnapfireBignum
UndyingSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 52%
Series resultStoRm 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1