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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Восточная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 0:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:1
StoRmwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Rubick
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 14 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 11 games
36%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lukas · 9 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Egor · 8 games
63%

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DkFogas · 14 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
re1bl · 10 games
30%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
OneJey · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
RodjER · 10 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SoNNeikO · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 9 games
11%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SoNNeikO · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
686 picks · 477 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
610 picks · 640 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
567 picks · 1110 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
522 picks · 493 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
517 picks · 1233 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
483 picks · 1048 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
460 picks · 678 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
451 picks · 917 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:19
MoneyMakers 50%StoRm 50%
The model gave 50% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLukas
55% · 143 games49% · 324 games
Morphlingkrylat
Morphling
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinEgor
50% · 130 games47% · 151 game
Zeusnicky`cool
Zeus
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBb3px
46% · 115 games50% · 146 games
Tidehunteremptiness
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickCeMaTheSlayeR
49% · 424 games57% · 78 games
LionOneJey
Lion
Snapfire
SnapfireBignum
46% · 356 games51% · 469 games
UndyingSoNNeikO
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 52%
Series resultStoRm 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1