Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Spirit Breakersignature
GeneRaL · 13 games
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 12 games
Queen of Painoften banned
No[o]ne · 11 games
Silencersignature
Solo · 11 games
Weaveroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 11 games
Puckoften banned
No[o]ne · 10 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
V-Tune · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
Solo · 9 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Banesignature
Bignum · 11 games
Disruptor
CeMaTheSlayeR · 11 games
Queen of Painsignature
fn · 11 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Hoodwink
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
Lunasignature
7jesu · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
fn · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
479 picks · 664 bans
Tiny
475 picks · 448 bans
Bane
455 picks · 277 bans
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 495 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 574 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:5
Natus Vincere 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:15.
Game 2prediction missed26:21
Natus Vincere 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 43:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 56%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2