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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 20 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Zayac · 19 games
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
80%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 13 games
69%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
Riddys · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Niku · 13 games
69%

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 34 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 25 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
41%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
52%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
523 picks · 268 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
482 picks · 487 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
367 picks · 999 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
328 picks · 377 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
305 picks · 518 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
304 picks · 147 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
303 picks · 497 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
299 picks · 147 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:20
Natus Vincere 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassingotthejuice
55% · 220 games55% · 191 game
UrsaGhost
Ursa
Marci
Marcipma
46% · 166 games52% · 348 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNiku
49% · 311 games45% · 84 games
UnderlordNo!ob
Underlord
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
49% · 284 games51% · 322 games
WarlockTobi
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroRiddys
53% · 258 games44% · 294 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct33:10
Natus Vincere 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
48% · 434 games53% · 153 games
MedusaGhost
Medusa
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
41% · 50 games49% · 175 games
InvokerSumaiL
Invoker
Underlord
Underlordpma
46% · 79 games50% · 333 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Warlock
WarlockRiddys
53% · 244 games54% · 261 game
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Hoodwink
HoodwinkZayac
50% · 219 games52% · 104 games
Elder TitanTobi
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 57%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2