BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 20 games
Disruptoroften banned
Zayac · 19 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 16 games
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 13 games
Dazzlesignature
Riddys · 13 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Niku · 13 games
Nigma Galaxy
Tusksignature
GH · 34 games
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 25 games
Elder Titansignature
GH · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 21 game
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
523 picks · 268 bans
Disruptor
482 picks · 487 bans
Puck
367 picks · 999 bans
Pugna
328 picks · 377 bans
Mars
305 picks · 518 bans
Warlock
304 picks · 147 bans
Earthshaker
303 picks · 497 bans
Hoodwink
299 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total57% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:20
Natus Vincere 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassingotthejuice
UrsaGhost
Marcipma
PuckSumaiL
Dragon KnightNiku
UnderlordNo!ob
SnapfireZayac
WarlockTobi
JakiroRiddys
HoodwinkOmaR
Game 2prediction correct33:10
Natus Vincere 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierNiku
MedusaGhost
Troll Warlordgotthejuice
InvokerSumaiL
Underlordpma
BeastmasterNo!ob
WarlockRiddys
BatriderOmaR
HoodwinkZayac
Elder TitanTobi
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 57%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2