EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 20 games
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 19 games
Hoodwink
ariel · 18 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
Tusk
ariel · 16 games
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 15 games
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 14 games
Dandelions
Lina
Mo13ei · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
Broodmother
rizhiywisper · 1 game
Chen
Kidaro · 1 game
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
Dazzle
PERDAN4IK · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Goffren · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
528 picks · 375 bans
Rubick
432 picks · 258 bans
Tiny
367 picks · 371 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 633 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 436 bans
Windranger
326 picks · 232 bans
Phoenix
298 picks · 226 bans
Storm Spirit
294 picks · 313 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Dandelions
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:19
Nemiga Gaming 60%Dandelions 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendbyun
TinyNande
Ember Spirityoung G
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Primal BeastCovisnine
Dark SeerChodΣX
Hoodwinkariel
TechiesGilgir
LichJANTER
RubickSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct55:17
Nemiga Gaming 58%Dandelions 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
KezNande
Windrangerbyun
Invokerxn丶e
Pangolieryoung G
SnapfireChodΣX
Hoodwinkariel
RubickSsaSpartan
UndyingJANTER
ClockwerkGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 68%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2