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EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dandelionsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 20 games
35%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 19 games
37%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 18 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 15 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 14 games
50%

Dandelions

Lina
Lina
Mo13ei · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
100%
Broodmother
Broodmother
rizhiywisper · 1 game
100%
Chen
Chen
Kidaro · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Antares · 1 game
100%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzle
PERDAN4IK · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Goffren · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
528 picks · 375 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
432 picks · 258 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
367 picks · 371 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 633 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 436 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
326 picks · 232 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
298 picks · 226 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
294 picks · 313 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Dandelions
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:19
Nemiga Gaming 60%Dandelions 40%
The model gave 60% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendbyun
49% · 320 games48% · 557 games
TinyNande
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirityoung G
56% · 534 games46% · 534 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCovisnine
56% · 160 games42% · 122 games
Dark SeerChodΣX
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
54% · 633 games47% · 187 games
TechiesGilgir
Techies
Lich
LichJANTER
54% · 133 games45% · 380 games
RubickSsaSpartan
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct55:17
Nemiga Gaming 58%Dandelions 42%
The model gave 58% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
48% · 270 games47% · 291 game
KezNande
Kez
Windranger
Windrangerbyun
51% · 293 games55% · 198 games
Invokerxn丶e
Invoker
Pangolier
Pangolieryoung G
46% · 374 games52% · 553 games
SnapfireChodΣX
Snapfire
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
53% · 700 games49% · 400 games
RubickSsaSpartan
Rubick
Undying
UndyingJANTER
49% · 125 games50% · 320 games
ClockwerkGilgir
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 68%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2