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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
One Moveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 20 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 19 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 19 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
57%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%

One Move

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
36%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
22%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 8 games
25%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 8 games
13%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 632 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
375 picks · 394 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 152 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
365 picks · 477 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 592 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
321 picks · 694 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
321 picks · 155 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
315 picks · 462 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 31%
Hero pool strength61% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total72% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:4
Nemiga Gaming 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 23:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLukas
61% · 21 game49% · 236 games
Pangolierxn丶e
Pangolier
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
51% · 238 games46% · 171 game
Vengeful SpiritSSS
Vengeful Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordMikSa`
53% · 50 games45% · 119 games
TuskKyzko
Tusk
Batrider
Batriderjesv
49% · 238 games47% · 158 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoraik
56% · 137 games
Game 2prediction correct32:20
Nemiga Gaming 64%One Move 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLukas
51% · 102 games49% · 52 games
AxeSSS
Axe
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
51% · 131 game45% · 82 games
Void Spiritxn丶e
Void Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordMikSa`
42% · 27 games55% · 223 games
ClockwerkKyzko
Clockwerk
Enigma
Enigmaaik
58% · 59 games54% · 99 games
IoRein
Io
Rubick
Rubickjesv
42% · 137 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 72%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2