Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Crystal Maiden
aik · 20 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 19 games
Rubick
queezy · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 19 games
Batridersignature
aik · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
One Move
Hoodwink
queezy · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Rein · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
418 picks · 632 bans
Gyrocopter
375 picks · 394 bans
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 152 bans
Centaur Warrunner
365 picks · 477 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 592 bans
Dragon Knight
321 picks · 694 bans
Rubick
321 picks · 155 bans
Batrider
315 picks · 462 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 31%
Hero pool strength61% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total72% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:4
Nemiga Gaming 65%One Move 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 23:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendLukas
Pangolierxn丶e
Tinynicky`cool
Vengeful SpiritSSS
UnderlordMikSa`
TuskKyzko
Batriderjesv
PhoenixRein
Treant Protectoraik
Game 2prediction correct32:20
Nemiga Gaming 64%One Move 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingLukas
AxeSSS
Tinynicky`cool
Void Spiritxn丶e
UnderlordMikSa`
ClockwerkKyzko
Enigmaaik
IoRein
Rubickjesv
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 72%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2