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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 13 games
31%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 11 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 9 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 9 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 9 games
44%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
22%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
VaniLLl · 8 games
63%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
67%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 17 games
47%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
672 picks · 830 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
582 picks · 599 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
478 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
476 picks · 418 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1093 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 696 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1005 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 627 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Team Lynx
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total69% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:32
Nemiga Gaming 39%Team Lynx 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linayoung G
48% · 61 game53% · 105 games
Huskarmellojul
Huskar
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritselfhate
54% · 386 games59% · 60 games
Slark7jesu
Slark
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCovisnine
54% · 92 games55% · 224 games
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Tidehunter
Muerta
Muertaariel
49% · 160 games46% · 532 games
TinyQBFY
Tiny
Warlock
WarlockVaniLLl
44% · 366 games42% · 144 games
Dazzlekreker
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct27:19
Nemiga Gaming 38%Team Lynx 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverselfhate
46% · 110 games55% · 180 games
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Beastmaster
Beastmasteryoung G
45% · 254 games55% · 372 games
BatriderVladikTheHtiviy
Batrider
Razor
RazorCovisnine
49% · 119 games55% · 384 games
Ember Spiritmellojul
Ember Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorVaniLLl
47% · 387 games59% · 228 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
Tusk
Tuskariel
43% · 573 games46% · 279 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 69%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2