European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 11 games
Hoodwink
ariel · 9 games
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 9 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 9 games
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
VaniLLl · 8 games
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 21 game
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
Sand King
mellojul · 17 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
672 picks · 830 bans
Tiny
582 picks · 599 bans
Warlock
478 picks · 325 bans
Tusk
476 picks · 418 bans
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1093 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 696 bans
Shadow Fiend
394 picks · 1005 bans
Mars
385 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% Team Lynx
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total69% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:32
Nemiga Gaming 39%Team Lynx 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 32:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linayoung G
Huskarmellojul
Ember Spiritselfhate
Slark7jesu
Primal BeastCovisnine
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Muertaariel
TinyQBFY
WarlockVaniLLl
Dazzlekreker
Game 2prediction correct27:19
Nemiga Gaming 38%Team Lynx 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 42:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaverselfhate
Morphling7jesu
Beastmasteryoung G
BatriderVladikTheHtiviy
RazorCovisnine
Ember Spiritmellojul
DisruptorVaniLLl
Pugnakreker
Tuskariel
Dark WillowQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 69%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2