DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
Pugna
queezy · 10 games
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 8 games
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 8 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
Tidehuntersignature
Xibbe · 7 games
V1dar Gaming
Dark Willow
Groom · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 1 game
Luna
dizzying · 1 game
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
Groom · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
379 picks · 352 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 577 bans
Mars
349 picks · 534 bans
Techies
346 picks · 273 bans
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 335 bans
Batrider
329 picks · 671 bans
Hoodwink
319 picks · 191 bans
Tiny
309 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
Nemiga Gaming 67%V1dar Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 25:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenv1olent-
Gyrocopterdizzying
Pangoliernicky`cool
TinyGroom
Primal BeastMikSa`
Pugnaqueezy
Techiesaik
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 79%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1