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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
V1dar Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
42%
Pugna
Pugna
queezy · 10 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
29%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Xibbe · 7 games
86%

V1dar Gaming

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Groom · 2 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
dizzying · 2 games
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Groom · 1 game
0%
Luna
Luna
dizzying · 1 game
100%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Groom · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
379 picks · 352 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 577 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 534 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
346 picks · 273 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
344 picks · 335 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
329 picks · 671 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
319 picks · 191 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
309 picks · 316 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:5
Nemiga Gaming 67%V1dar Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 25:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenv1olent-
51% · 56 games54% · 130 games
Gyrocopterdizzying
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
Pangoliernicky`cool
49% · 122 games47% · 257 games
TinyGroom
Tiny
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMikSa`
47% · 95 games
Pugna
Pugnaqueezy
53% · 44 games
Techies
Techiesaik
49% · 70 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 79%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1