CCT Series 2 · BO5
result vs prediction
Night Pulseloss 2:3series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:3
HULIGANIwin 3:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Night Pulse
Pangolieroften banned
Worick · 20 games
Hoodwinksignature
JANTER · 17 games
Doomoften banned
Kami · 16 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 16 games
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 16 games
Crystal Maidensignature
JANTER · 15 games
Medusasignature
V-Tune · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Hduo · 14 games
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 24 games
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 24 games
Rubick
OneJey · 22 games
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 19 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 18 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
OneJey · 18 games
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
414 picks · 319 bans
Hoodwink
409 picks · 442 bans
Weaver
392 picks · 825 bans
Tiny
381 picks · 877 bans
Phoenix
360 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 507 bans
Clockwerk
341 picks · 485 bans
Dragon Knight
302 picks · 534 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Night Pulse
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total54% Night Pulse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:29
Night Pulse 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckWorick
Tinyv1olent-
LinaV-Tune
DoomMalik
AxeKami
Storm SpiritMirage
HoodwinkJANTER
BatriderHellscream
TinkerHduo
ChenPanto
Game 2prediction missed8:26
Night Pulse 52%HULIGANI 48%
The model gave 52% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 18:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenV-Tune
Ursav1olent-
SlarkKami
Void SpiritMirage
BatriderWorick
DoomMalik
HoodwinkJANTER
MorphlingHellscream
PhoenixHduo
ChenPanto
Game 3prediction correct20:8
Night Pulse 50%HULIGANI 50%
The model gave 50% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 23:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightV-Tune
Tinyv1olent-
AxeKami
Void SpiritMirage
Monkey KingWorick
VisageMalik
BatriderJANTER
ChenPanto
JakiroHduo
MarciHellscream
Game 4prediction correct29:21
Night Pulse 53%HULIGANI 47%
The model gave 53% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 43:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaV-Tune
Terrorbladev1olent-
Ember SpiritWorick
Void SpiritMirage
BeastmasterKami
LycanMalik
RubickJANTER
MorphlingHellscream
OracleHduo
BatriderPanto
Game 5prediction missed4:25
Night Pulse 51%HULIGANI 49%
The model gave 51% on Night Pulse — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 26:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarWorick
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
PangolierKami
Storm SpiritMirage
SpectreV-Tune
Centaur WarrunnerMalik
HoodwinkJANTER
BatriderHellscream
OracleHduo
TinkerPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteNight Pulse · 54%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5