Ninja Penguins vs KZ TEAM — prediction BDD2ОК · Dota 2

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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Ninja Penguinswin 2:0

series probability

31%69%

probability at match start · final 2:0

KZ TEAMloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

No games played over 6 months.

KZ TEAM

Grimstrokeoften banned

SsaSpartan · 16 games

56%

Rubick

Pablo · 16 games

38%

Muertaoften banned

Astral · 14 games

57%

Shadow Demon

SsaSpartan · 12 games

42%

Faceless Voidsignature

Otaker · 11 games

64%

Pangoliersignature

W1sh- · 11 games

73%

Vengeful Spirit

SsaSpartan · 11 games

36%

Dark Willowsignature

Astral · 10 games

60%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Grimstroke

247 picks · 419 bans

52%

Muerta

225 picks · 317 bans

50%

Phoenix

212 picks · 324 bans

49%

Tusk

197 picks · 181 bans

46%

Dark Willow

195 picks · 97 bans

53%

Centaur Warrunner

193 picks · 266 bans

49%

Treant Protector

185 picks · 358 bans

53%

Kunkka

177 picks · 504 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%

Hero pool strength50% KZ TEAM

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total69% KZ TEAM

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed

Ninja Penguins 31%KZ TEAM 69%

The model gave 69% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins.

Game 2prediction missed27:13

Ninja Penguins 38%KZ TEAM 62%

The model gave 62% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 42:13.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo