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BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 2:0
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

No games played over 6 months.

KZ TEAM

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 16 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 16 games
38%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 14 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 12 games
42%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Otaker · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 11 games
36%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Astral · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
247 picks · 419 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
212 picks · 324 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
197 picks · 181 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
195 picks · 97 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
193 picks · 266 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
185 picks · 358 bans
53%
Kunkka
Kunkka
177 picks · 504 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ninja Penguins 31%KZ TEAM 69%
The model gave 69% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins.
Game 2prediction missed27:13
Ninja Penguins 38%KZ TEAM 62%
The model gave 62% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenLowskill
45% · 104 games54% · 83 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerCopy
52% · 21 game56% · 48 games
PudgeOtaker
Pudge
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFayde
49% · 105 games42% · 70 games
LycanSkyLark
Lycan
Silencer
SilencerMiLAN
53% · 165 games49% · 114 games
PhoenixAstral
Phoenix
53% · 80 games
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 69%
Series resultNinja Penguins 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2